Tropical Storm Alex headed for Texas

Hurricane Watch:

• Mexico: The Mexican Gulf coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande southward to La Cruz
• United States: The Texas coast from Baffin Bay southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande

The 2010 hurricane season began on June 1st and isn't wasting much time in getting going.

On June 12, a tropical wave emerged off Western Africa, and eventually traveled along the Intertropical Convergence Zone. It was first noted by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) on June 20, while it was crossing the Windward Islands. The next day, it organized, and the NHC assessed a 50% chance of development into a tropical depression within next 2 days. It became less organized the next day; however, conditions were still favorable for development.

On June 24, it began to reestablish south of Jamaica, although it was poorly organized. Later that day, shower activity increased, and pressures began to fall. Hurricane Hunters flew inside it the next day and found a well defined circulation, and based on that data, the NHC began issuing advisories on Tropical Depression One, the first tropical depression of the season. Early on the June 26, the NHC upgraded the depression to a tropical storm and named it Alex.

Tropical Storm Alex as he stands 1 PM CDT June 28:
Location: 20.3°N 91.7°W
Max sustained: 60 mph
Moving: NNW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 990 mb

Currently, the storm is in the Bay of Campeche. The current trajectory and speed creates a model that looks like this:


Tropical Storm Alex is expected to strengthen into a hurricane but is heading away from the massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, the National Hurricane Center said Monday. "Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days and Alex is expected to become a hurricane on Tuesday," the Hurricane Center said in its 10 AM ET forecast.

The storm could become a major hurricane and could make landfall anywhere from Port Lavaca, Texas to Tampico, Mexico, the Hurricane Center said Monday. The Hurricane Center issued a hurricane watch Monday for the Texas coast from south of Baffin Bay to the mouth of the Rio Grande.

And the Mexican government issued a hurricane watch for the coast of Mexico from the mouth of the Rio Grande to La Cruz, Mexico. That means that hurricane conditions are possible within those areas.

A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated arrival of tropical-storm-force winds. Forecasting models suggest that Alex could make landfall in northeastern Mexico, probably on Thursday.

The storm appears headed away from the massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. Alex could become a Category 3 hurricane, the Hurricane Center said.

Its winds were blowing at 60 miles an hour as of 10 AM ET Monday. "We will know much more as this storm continues to intensify today and tomorrow," the Hurricane Center said in a statement.

"We think the storm is going to stay on a more southern track. That would be good news because it would avoid the area near the oil spill," said Todd Kimberlain of the Hurricane Center.

However, forecasters have not ruled out an easterly shift in Alex's path. "We all know the weather is unpredictable, and we could have a sudden last-minute change," said Coast Guard Adm. Thad Allen, the federal government's response manager.

Information from the National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Oceanic and Atmosphere Agency (NOAA).