Alex now a Hurricane

At about 9.45 this evening, the NHC upgraded Tropical Storm Alex to a category one hurricane.

10:00 PM CDT Tue Jun 29
Location: 23.1°N 94.8°W
Max sustained: 75 mph
Moving: W at 9 mph
Min pressure: 973 mb

It is the first Hurricane of the 2010 season. It is also the first June Hurricane since 1995. That was Hurricane Allison which was a hurricane on June 2nd. The Atlantic Hurricane Season begins on June 1st.

The hurricane is projected to make landfall further south. At this time it is moving due west to the Mexican coast.

Texas will still get hit by the dirty side of the hurricane. The Dirty Side is commonly the westerly or northernly part of the hurricane. In the rotation, it is the portion that brings wind and water onto shore.

Winds will blow in a counter-clockwise spin into marshes of Louisiana. The oil slick may be brought onto shore.

From NOAA

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

Hurricane Warning for Tropical Storm Alex

Twenty-four minutes ago, the Hurricane Warning was raised in Coastal Mexico and Texas. Tropical Storm Alex has not reached sustained windspeeds of 74mph. It is only at 65mph.

Complete Information as 10:00 PM CDT Mon Jun 28

Location: 21.0°N 91.6°W
Max sustained: 65 mph/55 kn
Moving: N at 5 mph
Min pressure: 985 mb

As of 10 PM CDT June 28 (0300 UTC June 29), the center of Tropical Storm Alex was located within 25 nautical miles of 21.0°N 91.6°W, about 440 miles (710 km) east-southeast of La Pesca, Mexico, and about 505 miles (810 km) southeast of Brownsville, Texas. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 65 mph (55 kn; 100 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum central pressure is estimated to be 985 mbar (hPa; 29.09 inHg) and the storm is moving north at 5 mph (7 km/h).

On the evening of June 28, as Alex neared hurricane strength, a hurricane warning was issued for the coast of Texas, south of Baffin Bay to the mouth of the Rio Grande. A hurricane warning was also issued by the Mexican Government from the Rio Grande south to La Cruz. A tropical storm warning was also issued for coastal Texas from Baffin Bay northward to Port O'Conner. The Governor of Texas declared a state of disaster in 19 counties.

According to the National Weather Service, Alex is expected to strengthen to a Category 2 Hurricane.

000
WTNT31 KNHC 290544
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010
100 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010

...ALEX GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 91.8W
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST.  ALEX IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND ALEX IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...
MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH
TUESDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS ON
WEDNESDAY...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.  THE
SURGE COULD PENETRATE AS FAR INLAND AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE
WITH DEPTH GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE WATER MOVES INLAND.  NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

NOAA Weather Radio Houston

Maritime Flags

If you've never been or lived in coastal areas or even near the North Shore, you probably haven't had to think about nautical weather and warnings.
The US Coast Guard uses flags displayed on masts. flagpoles and yardarms to warn of impending maritime weather.

Here's a guide to the uninitiated.

Tropical Storm Watch

A tropical storm watch (TRA) is issued when tropical storm conditions, including winds from 39 to 73 mph (35 to 64 knots, 63 to 117 km/h) pose a possible threat to a specified coastal area within 48 hours (was 36 hours prior to 2010 hurricane season). Maritime flags indicate this with a single square red flag.

Tropical Storm Warning

A tropical storm warning (TRW) is issued when tropical storm conditions (as above) are expected in a specified coastal area within 36 hours or less (was 24 hours or less prior to 2010 hurricane season). Maritime flags indicate this with two square red flags.

Hurricanes

Hurricane Watch

A hurricane watch (HWA) is issued for a specified area for which a hurricane or a hurricane-related hazard is a possible threat within 48 hours (was 36 hours prior to 2010 hurricane season). Maritime flags indicate this with a single square red flag with a black square in the middle.

The purpose of a hurricane watch is to inform families to obtain supplies, secure your home, and be prepared to evacuate.

Hurricane Warning

A hurricane warning (HWW) is issued when a hurricane with sustained winds of 74 mph (65 knots, 118 km/h) or higher is expected in a specified coastal area in 36 hours or less (was 24 hours or less prior to 2010 hurricane season). Maritime flags indicate this with two square red flags with a black square in the middle of each.

A hurricane warning can remain in effect when dangerously high water or a combination of dangerously high water and exceptionally high waves continues, even though the winds may have subsided below hurricane intensity.

Where the intensity or track of a forecast cyclone are uncertain (such as a tropical storm bordering hurricane intensity or on the edge of a track), a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are often in effect at the same time on parts of the coast. Maritime flags indicate this with two square red flags with a black square in the middle on only one of them.

Tropical Storm Alex headed for Texas

Hurricane Watch:

• Mexico: The Mexican Gulf coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande southward to La Cruz
• United States: The Texas coast from Baffin Bay southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande

The 2010 hurricane season began on June 1st and isn't wasting much time in getting going.

On June 12, a tropical wave emerged off Western Africa, and eventually traveled along the Intertropical Convergence Zone. It was first noted by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) on June 20, while it was crossing the Windward Islands. The next day, it organized, and the NHC assessed a 50% chance of development into a tropical depression within next 2 days. It became less organized the next day; however, conditions were still favorable for development.

On June 24, it began to reestablish south of Jamaica, although it was poorly organized. Later that day, shower activity increased, and pressures began to fall. Hurricane Hunters flew inside it the next day and found a well defined circulation, and based on that data, the NHC began issuing advisories on Tropical Depression One, the first tropical depression of the season. Early on the June 26, the NHC upgraded the depression to a tropical storm and named it Alex.

Tropical Storm Alex as he stands 1 PM CDT June 28:
Location: 20.3°N 91.7°W
Max sustained: 60 mph
Moving: NNW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 990 mb

Currently, the storm is in the Bay of Campeche. The current trajectory and speed creates a model that looks like this:


Tropical Storm Alex is expected to strengthen into a hurricane but is heading away from the massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, the National Hurricane Center said Monday. "Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days and Alex is expected to become a hurricane on Tuesday," the Hurricane Center said in its 10 AM ET forecast.

The storm could become a major hurricane and could make landfall anywhere from Port Lavaca, Texas to Tampico, Mexico, the Hurricane Center said Monday. The Hurricane Center issued a hurricane watch Monday for the Texas coast from south of Baffin Bay to the mouth of the Rio Grande.

And the Mexican government issued a hurricane watch for the coast of Mexico from the mouth of the Rio Grande to La Cruz, Mexico. That means that hurricane conditions are possible within those areas.

A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated arrival of tropical-storm-force winds. Forecasting models suggest that Alex could make landfall in northeastern Mexico, probably on Thursday.

The storm appears headed away from the massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. Alex could become a Category 3 hurricane, the Hurricane Center said.

Its winds were blowing at 60 miles an hour as of 10 AM ET Monday. "We will know much more as this storm continues to intensify today and tomorrow," the Hurricane Center said in a statement.

"We think the storm is going to stay on a more southern track. That would be good news because it would avoid the area near the oil spill," said Todd Kimberlain of the Hurricane Center.

However, forecasters have not ruled out an easterly shift in Alex's path. "We all know the weather is unpredictable, and we could have a sudden last-minute change," said Coast Guard Adm. Thad Allen, the federal government's response manager.

Information from the National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Oceanic and Atmosphere Agency (NOAA).