One step forward, Two steps back

BP and the US Coast Guard are backing off from the Deep Horizon Oil Spill in the Gulf of Mexico because of a Tropical Depression in the eastern gulf. Currently, it has sustained winds of 35 mph and a pressure of 1006 mb. The most recent reconnaissance shows no strengthening.

Tropical Depression Three is located north of Cuba and south of the Bahamas. It looks like it will threaten Florida and possibly the Gulf Coast states of Louisiana and Mississippi. If it were to sing east instead it would go into the Atlantic or skirt along Florida's east coast and the Georgian coast. That is if...

The cap which they have been testing will have to come off. With BP and the Coast Guard vacating the area for 10-14 days, there will be more oil in the gulf again.

We can only watch and pray. Again.

Maritime Flags

If you've never been or lived in coastal areas or even near the North Shore, you probably haven't had to think about nautical weather and warnings.
The US Coast Guard uses flags displayed on masts. flagpoles and yardarms to warn of impending maritime weather.

Here's a guide to the uninitiated.

Tropical Storm Watch

A tropical storm watch (TRA) is issued when tropical storm conditions, including winds from 39 to 73 mph (35 to 64 knots, 63 to 117 km/h) pose a possible threat to a specified coastal area within 48 hours (was 36 hours prior to 2010 hurricane season). Maritime flags indicate this with a single square red flag.

Tropical Storm Warning

A tropical storm warning (TRW) is issued when tropical storm conditions (as above) are expected in a specified coastal area within 36 hours or less (was 24 hours or less prior to 2010 hurricane season). Maritime flags indicate this with two square red flags.

Hurricanes

Hurricane Watch

A hurricane watch (HWA) is issued for a specified area for which a hurricane or a hurricane-related hazard is a possible threat within 48 hours (was 36 hours prior to 2010 hurricane season). Maritime flags indicate this with a single square red flag with a black square in the middle.

The purpose of a hurricane watch is to inform families to obtain supplies, secure your home, and be prepared to evacuate.

Hurricane Warning

A hurricane warning (HWW) is issued when a hurricane with sustained winds of 74 mph (65 knots, 118 km/h) or higher is expected in a specified coastal area in 36 hours or less (was 24 hours or less prior to 2010 hurricane season). Maritime flags indicate this with two square red flags with a black square in the middle of each.

A hurricane warning can remain in effect when dangerously high water or a combination of dangerously high water and exceptionally high waves continues, even though the winds may have subsided below hurricane intensity.

Where the intensity or track of a forecast cyclone are uncertain (such as a tropical storm bordering hurricane intensity or on the edge of a track), a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are often in effect at the same time on parts of the coast. Maritime flags indicate this with two square red flags with a black square in the middle on only one of them.

Tropical Storm Alex headed for Texas

Hurricane Watch:

• Mexico: The Mexican Gulf coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande southward to La Cruz
• United States: The Texas coast from Baffin Bay southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande

The 2010 hurricane season began on June 1st and isn't wasting much time in getting going.

On June 12, a tropical wave emerged off Western Africa, and eventually traveled along the Intertropical Convergence Zone. It was first noted by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) on June 20, while it was crossing the Windward Islands. The next day, it organized, and the NHC assessed a 50% chance of development into a tropical depression within next 2 days. It became less organized the next day; however, conditions were still favorable for development.

On June 24, it began to reestablish south of Jamaica, although it was poorly organized. Later that day, shower activity increased, and pressures began to fall. Hurricane Hunters flew inside it the next day and found a well defined circulation, and based on that data, the NHC began issuing advisories on Tropical Depression One, the first tropical depression of the season. Early on the June 26, the NHC upgraded the depression to a tropical storm and named it Alex.

Tropical Storm Alex as he stands 1 PM CDT June 28:
Location: 20.3°N 91.7°W
Max sustained: 60 mph
Moving: NNW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 990 mb

Currently, the storm is in the Bay of Campeche. The current trajectory and speed creates a model that looks like this:


Tropical Storm Alex is expected to strengthen into a hurricane but is heading away from the massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, the National Hurricane Center said Monday. "Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days and Alex is expected to become a hurricane on Tuesday," the Hurricane Center said in its 10 AM ET forecast.

The storm could become a major hurricane and could make landfall anywhere from Port Lavaca, Texas to Tampico, Mexico, the Hurricane Center said Monday. The Hurricane Center issued a hurricane watch Monday for the Texas coast from south of Baffin Bay to the mouth of the Rio Grande.

And the Mexican government issued a hurricane watch for the coast of Mexico from the mouth of the Rio Grande to La Cruz, Mexico. That means that hurricane conditions are possible within those areas.

A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated arrival of tropical-storm-force winds. Forecasting models suggest that Alex could make landfall in northeastern Mexico, probably on Thursday.

The storm appears headed away from the massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. Alex could become a Category 3 hurricane, the Hurricane Center said.

Its winds were blowing at 60 miles an hour as of 10 AM ET Monday. "We will know much more as this storm continues to intensify today and tomorrow," the Hurricane Center said in a statement.

"We think the storm is going to stay on a more southern track. That would be good news because it would avoid the area near the oil spill," said Todd Kimberlain of the Hurricane Center.

However, forecasters have not ruled out an easterly shift in Alex's path. "We all know the weather is unpredictable, and we could have a sudden last-minute change," said Coast Guard Adm. Thad Allen, the federal government's response manager.

Information from the National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Oceanic and Atmosphere Agency (NOAA).